Weibo Corp (WB)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The business carries itself: three years running of roughly half a billion dollars of income from operations at a 26 to 28 percent margin, a net cash position, no sign of a balance sheet crisis. What is open is an operating question — the platform is shrinking on every base metric (users, advertisers, revenue from everyone other than Alibaba), and reported profit visibly hangs on the investment portfolio rather than the advertising business, which lets the result swing by half from one year to the next. On top of that sits a structure in which ADS holders own contracts rather than equity, and a shareholder with 35.7 percent of the shares carries 62.5 percent of the votes. One finding from the notes counsels caution too: Weibo had US$946.0 million lent to related parties as of December 31, 2025, US$408.3 million of it to an equity investee in the real estate business. That is not a documented threat to the substance — interest cover runs at about five and a half times and shareholders' equity stands at US$3,920.7 million — but it is well short of a clean quality record. Hence yellow. That the stock is cheap plays no part in this rating. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Weibo looks like the cheapest thing on the Nasdaq: about 4.5 times 2025 earnings, half of book value, more cash than market value and a dividend yield near 8 percent (data as of July 15, 2026). We read the annual report (20-F) for 2025 and the interim report (6-K) of May 2026 line by line: reported profit rose 49 percent, but income from operations fell; the user base, the advertiser count and the ad money from every customer other than Alibaba have all been shrinking for three years; and in its best reported year the board cut the payout per ADS from $0.82 to $0.61 while authorizing a $200 million buyback it had not touched. Not investment advice — just a careful look at what a receipt actually proves.
Read the analysis
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This analysis is as of July 16, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at WB since then.
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Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIWeibo verkauft keine KI-Produkte, setzt KI aber im Kern des eigenen Betriebs ein: Empfehlungs-Engine, KI-gestützte Suche und Werbe-Aussteuerung; eine eigene generative KI-Anwendung ist bei der chinesischen Aufsicht registriert.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We incorporate algorithms and AI technologies in our products and services, and we are making investments in AI initiatives to further expand our AI capabilities, including ongoing deployment and improvement of existing machine learning and AI technologies, as well as developing new product features using AI technologies."
Wir setzen Algorithmen und KI-Technologien in unseren Produkten und Diensten ein und investieren in KI-Vorhaben, um unsere KI-Fähigkeiten weiter auszubauen — dazu gehören der laufende Einsatz und die Verbesserung bestehender Technologien des maschinellen Lernens und der KI sowie die Entwicklung neuer Produktfunktionen mit KI-Technologien.
„As of the date of this annual report, we have completed the filings for five of our algorithms and one of our generative AI services on the Internet Information Service Algorithm Filing System."
Zum Datum dieses Jahresberichts haben wir die Registrierung für fünf unserer Algorithmen und einen unserer generativen KI-Dienste im Algorithmus-Melderegister für Internet-Informationsdienste abgeschlossen.
„We continued to expand our unique content marketing approach across more industries and clients, while leveraging AI to systematically improve advertising conversion effectiveness."
Wir haben unseren besonderen Content-Marketing-Ansatz auf weitere Branchen und Kunden ausgeweitet und dabei KI genutzt, um die Werbe-Konversionswirkung systematisch zu verbessern.
Filings Reviewed: 20-F 2026-04-23 · 6-K 2026-05-28 · 6-K 2026-05-27 · 6-K 2026-04-27 · 6-K 2026-03-18 · 20-F 2025-04-15
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
No price target is available for this stock.
- Consensus
- Sell
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.33 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.48 | -9.40 | 438 | -0.50 | 25.60 | – | – |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.53 | -7.00 | 465 | 5.10 | 28.10 | – | – |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.40 | 29.00 | 457 | 15.50 | 1.90 | – | – |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.45 | 9.80 | 397 | 0.30 | 27.00 | – | – |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.54 | 12.50 | 445 | 1.60 | 28.30 | – | – |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.42 | -20.80 | 443 | -4.60 | 49.90 | – | – |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.25 | -37.50 | 475 | 4.00 | -1.00 | – | – |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.32 | -28.90 | 421 | 6.20 | 8.20 | – | – |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
A genuinely profitable platform: income from operations of US$464.8 million in 2025 at a 26 percent margin, US$519.5 million of operating cash flow, US$2,405.1 million of cash and short-term investments against about US$1.86 billion of debt — a net cash position, and a cash box worth more than the entire US$1.88 billion market value (annual report 20-F for 2025; market data as of July 15, 2026).
ADS buyers acquire no equity in the operating business: the Cayman holding company has, in its own words, "no equity ownership in the VIEs" that produced 85.9 percent of 2025 revenue; the licenses belong to four named private individuals; the contracts "have not been tested in court to date", and a PRC ruling against the structure could bring "severe penalties" or loss of those interests (annual report 20-F for 2025, Item 3).
The 49 percent profit jump to US$449.0 million in 2025 came from below the operating line — equity-method investments swung from minus US$12.2 million to plus US$76.7 million and impairments fell from US$93.4 million to US$6.0 million — while income from operations fell 6 percent. The mechanism reversed at once: Q1 2026 net income minus 68 percent to US$34.7 million on a US$35.0 million investment fair-value loss (6-K of May 28, 2026).
Revenue flat for three years (US$1,759.8m / US$1,754.7m / US$1,757.2m) and just +1 percent on a constant-currency basis in Q1 2026; MAUs down from 598 million to 567 million (12/2023 to 12/2025) and 562 million by March 2026; advertisers down from 0.7 million to 0.4 million; advertising revenue excluding Alibaba down three years running (US$1,422.4m → US$1,381.9m → US$1,327.8m), with only Alibaba (US$116.8m → US$173.8m) keeping the total at US$1,501.6m — against WeChat, Douyin, Kuaishou, Bilibili and Xiaohongshu. In Q1 2026 the ex-Alibaba line rose again for the first time in years (US$296.5m → US$326.5m), mostly on a weaker dollar.
Roughly US$200 million of dividends paid in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 is real money, and a US$200 million buyback at half of book value would be accretive. But the dividend per ADS was cut 26 percent to US$0.61 in the record year (about US$149.7 million payable), and of the buyback authorized in December 2025 nothing had been executed: "We did not make any share repurchase in 2025" — nor per the Q1 2026 interim report.
About 4.5 times 2025 diluted earnings (about 5.4 times trailing twelve-month earnings), roughly 0.5 times book value, about 1.1 times revenue and an enterprise value near US$1.34 billion — less than three times operating income — plus a dividend yield around 7.9 percent. Analysts are split rather than enthusiastic: 9 strong buy, 10 hold, 2 sell, average target about US$9.04 (data as of July 15, 2026).
Weibo is a genuinely profitable company at a distressed price: about US$465 million of operating income, US$2.4 billion of cash against a US$1.88 billion market value, roughly 4.5 times 2025 earnings and half of book value. But the discount has four documented reasons. ADS holders own contracts with a Cayman shell rather than equity in the operating business, which earns 85.9 percent of revenue. The record profit was written by the investment portfolio, not the platform — operating income fell, and Q1 2026 net income dropped 68 percent when the same mechanism reversed. Users, advertisers and the ad money from every customer other than Alibaba are all receding, with only Alibaba filling the gap. And in the record year the board cut the dividend per ADS by 26 percent while its authorized US$200 million buyback repurchased nothing. Not investment advice.
- WB reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 3 mentions in 24 hours, as of July 16, 2026) — the striking part was the silence: a company with 567 million users and an 8 percent dividend yield generates no forum conversation at all.
- WB did not reach the list through one of our fundamental screens: the in-house stock scanner works through the Russell 3000 (U.S. companies), and Weibo is a Chinese company with depositary shares in New York. The evidence in this analysis therefore comes entirely from the original SEC documents rather than from a screener history.
- Weibo is a foreign private issuer: its documents are the annual report 20-F and interim reports 6-K, not 10-K/10-Q. Quarterly figures come as voluntary attachments to a 6-K rather than as audited mandatory reports.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to July 15, 2026 (about US$7.74 per ADS, market value roughly US$1.88 billion); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
- State of the review: the most recent periodic report is the interim report (6-K) of May 28, 2026 carrying the first-quarter 2026 figures. After that, through July 27, 2026, Weibo filed only one insider report (Form 4) of June 25, 2026 — an award of 374,791 ADSs to the CEO; at the annual general meeting of May 27, 2026 three directors were re-elected and no buyback mandate was put to a vote.
About the Company
Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company offers discovery products to help users discover content on its platform; self-expression products that enable its users to express themselves on its platform; and social products to promote social interaction between users on its platform. It also provides advertising and marketing solutions, such as social display advertisements; and promoted marketing offerings, such as Fans Headline, Weibo Express, and promoted feeds, as well as promoted trends and search products that appear alongside user's trends discovery and search behaviors. In addition, the company offers products, such as trends, search, video/live streaming, and editing tools; content customization, copyright contents pooling, and user interaction development; and search list recommendation, trends list recommendation, and Weibo app opening advertisements. Further, it provides back-end management, traffic support, and product services for better displaying and promotion of its account and content; an open application platform that allows users to log into third-party applications with their Weibo account for sharing third-party content on its platform; and Weibo Wallet, a product that enables platform partners to conduct interest generation activities on Weibo, such as handing out red envelops and coupons. It serves ordinary people, celebrities, opinion leaders, and other public figures or influencers, as well as media outlets, businesses, government agencies, charities, and other organizations. The company was formerly known as T.CN Corporation and changed its name to Weibo Corporation in 2012. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
| IPO Year | 2014 |
|---|
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.