Sabre Corporation (SABR)
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We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
No going-concern note and no large maturities before 2029 — but an Altman Z around zero, five distress flags, negative interest coverage and the open existential question of whether the 2029/2030 wall of about $4.1 billion can be refinanced at bearable rates. If earnings grow faster than the interest burden, the mass of debt levers the market value upward; if not, a restructuring can leave shareholders almost empty-handed while the network simply keeps running. The decision is yours.
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If you have ever flown, chances are you have used Sabre without knowing it: 365 million bookings ran through the travel-booking network of the Texas group in 2025 — a company that lately calls itself "AI-native". The stock still shows up in our insolvency warning scanner. We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: $4,438.8 million of debt at interest rates up to 11.125 percent, equity of minus $1,036.5 million, operating cash flow below zero — and a 2025 annual profit that stems solely from the sale of the hotel business. Not investment advice — just a security check before you board.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SABR since then.
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Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AISabre verkauft KI-fähige Produkte als dokumentierte Umsatzquelle: Das transaktionsbasierte Kerngeschäft läuft laut 10-K (Item 1) auf „machine learning based air and hotel shopping systems“, die 2024 gestartete Airline-Plattform SabreMosaic ist ausdrücklich auf einer KI-fähigen offenen Technologiestruktur gebaut, und generative-KI-Fähigkeiten (Chatbots für Airline-Kunden, agentische Schnittstellen zu externen KI-Plattformen) sind Teil des verkauften Produktportfolios. Im 10-Q zum 31.03.2026 positioniert sich Sabre selbst als „AI-native technology leader“. Nach der Vorrang-Regel gewinnt „verkauft“ vor dem ebenfalls belegten Bedroht-Element (Risk Factors warnen, Wettbewerber könnten KI schneller integrieren; genutzte Dritt-KI kann halluzinieren) — KI ist hier zuerst Produkt, dann Risiko.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In 2024, we launched SabreMosaic TM Airline Technology, a proprietary offer and order retailing platform for airlines that is designed and built on a modular, artificial intelligence („AI“)-enabled open technology structure, enabling airlines to dynamically create, sell and deliver an array of personalized content to travelers."
2024 haben wir SabreMosaic™ Airline Technology gestartet, eine proprietäre Offer-und-Order-Retailing-Plattform für Fluggesellschaften, die auf einer modularen, KI-fähigen offenen Technologiestruktur entworfen und gebaut ist und es Airlines ermöglicht, Reisenden dynamisch eine Palette personalisierter Inhalte zu erstellen, zu verkaufen und bereitzustellen.
„Additionally, we enable a variety of advanced retailing and servicing capabilities that are generative AI based, such as conversational chatbots for our airline customers and agentic interfaces that enable direct integration with external AI platforms."
Darüber hinaus ermöglichen wir eine Reihe fortgeschrittener Retailing- und Servicing-Fähigkeiten auf Basis generativer KI, etwa Konversations-Chatbots für unsere Airline-Kunden und agentische Schnittstellen, die eine direkte Integration mit externen KI-Plattformen erlauben.
„Sabre is an AI-native technology leader, backed by one of the world’s largest travel data clouds."
Sabre ist ein KI-nativer Technologieführer, gestützt auf eine der größten Reisedaten-Clouds der Welt.
„Our competitors or other third parties may incorporate AI into their products more quickly or more successfully than we do, which could impair our ability to compete effectively and adversely affect our results of operations."
Unsere Wettbewerber oder andere Dritte könnten KI schneller oder erfolgreicher in ihre Produkte integrieren als wir, was unsere Fähigkeit, wirksam zu konkurrieren, beeinträchtigen und unsere Ertragslage negativ beeinflussen könnte.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-K 2025-02-20
Rated on July 13, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.19 | – | 715 | 4.00 | -10.50 | 83 | 67 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.08 | – | 777 | -0.80 | 4.50 | -81 | -99 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.66 | – | 687 | -1.10 | -37.30 | -224 | -245 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.98 | – | 715 | -6.50 | 118.70 | 37 | 17 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.26 | – | 667 | -6.70 | -15.50 | 137 | 113 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.02 | -73.70 | 760 | -2.10 | 1.10 | -135 | -156 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
One of three big global distribution systems (GDS) with a genuine network effect: 365.3 million billable bookings and 695.4 million passengers boarded in 2025, transaction-based recurring revenue, 58 percent of bookings in North America (annual report 10-K for 2025).
Operating income rose from $32.2 million (2023) to $295.5 million (2025), technology costs fell by about $240 million, and the first quarter of 2026 brought +8 percent revenue. But bookings growth stood at just 0.6 percent in 2025, and so far all of the progress flows into the interest bill.
$4,438.8 million at par (March 31, 2026) at coupons up to 11.25 percent; net interest expense (2025: $447.8 million) has exceeded operating income in every year since 2023; about $4.1 billion come due in 2029/2030. The 10-K itself warns that operating cash flow may not suffice for principal and interest.
Equity of minus $1,036.5 million (December 31, 2025), operating cash flow of minus $108.9 million in 2025 and minus $134.2 million in the first quarter of 2026; the 2025 group profit stems solely from the $822 million gain on the hotel business sold to TPG — a non-repeatable one-off effect.
Real AI products (SabreMosaic, agentic interfaces, machine-learning booking systems) meet honest risk-factor warnings: third-party AI with hallucination risk, competitors could be faster. Constellation Software reported more than 5 percent in March 2026 and secured a new board seat (standstill cap: 15 percent) — while Vanguard most recently reduced its position by 17.8 percent.
Sabre is the opposite of an empty shell: an indispensable booking network with a genuine operating turnaround and an AI story that is more than a label. But the balance sheet tells the second half: $4.4 billion of debt at double-digit coupons, an interest burden above the entire operating income, negative equity, negative operating cash flow — and a 2025 profit that stems solely from the sale of the hotel business. The stock is the thin residual lever on a company that economically belongs five sixths to its creditors. Not investment advice.
- Unless noted otherwise, all earnings figures in the article refer to continuing operations (excluding the Hospitality Solutions business sold in July 2025, which is reported as discontinued operations).
- The debt-wall chart shows par values by final maturity per the quarterly report 10-Q as of March 31, 2026; scheduled small quarterly amortizations of the term loans (0.25 percent per quarter) are not shown separately in it.
- Price and valuation figures are dated July 8, 2026 (about $1.90, about 395 million shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Sabre Corporation ist zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften ein Software- und Technologieunternehmen für die Reisebranche in den USA, Europa, im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum und international. Es bietet den Sabre-Mosaic-Marktplatz, einen B2B-Reisemarktplatz, der Reiselösungen bereitstellt…
| Employees | 4,650 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Southlake, TX |
| Website | sabre.com |
| IPO Date | 17. Apr 2014 |
| Next Earnings | 6. Aug 2026 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Kurt J. Ekert | CEO, President & Director | 1971 |
| Michael O. Randolfi CPA | Executive VP & CFO | 1973 |
| Jennifer Catto | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 1976 |
| Roshan Chanaka Mendis | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer - Travel Solutions | 1973 |
| Garry R. Wiseman | Executive VP and Chief Product & Technology Officer - Travel Solutions | 1977 |
| Jami B. Kindle | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1966 |
| Joseph DiFonzo | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 1966 |
| Shawn G. Williams | Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer | 1974 |
| Brian Evans | Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | – |
| Rochelle J. Boas | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 1974 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.