Nextdecade Corp (NEXT)
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On the Brownsville Ship Channel in South Texas, roughly $31.4 billion is being turned into one of the largest construction sites in the United States: five liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of around 30 million tonnes a year, 25.3 million tonnes of it already sold to 14 buyers under contracts averaging 19.5 years. The build is running ahead of the guaranteed schedule, and first gas is due to flow into the plant in the second half of 2026. And yet the balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 carries a number you would never expect on a project like this: the equity attributable to NextDecade stockholders has fallen to minus $57.280 million. The cause is not an accounting scandal, it is a contract — the filings with the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, put the shareholders' share of the cash distributions from Phase 1 at up to about 20.8 percent, and the majority of that is paid only after the financing partners have cleared their threshold. This analysis does the arithmetic on what actually reaches you out of a $15.2 billion balance sheet. Not investment advice — just the question of how wide your slice of that construction site really is.
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Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralNextDecade baut und finanziert mit dem Rio Grande LNG Terminal in Brownsville/Texas eine Verflüssigungsanlage und verdient sein Geld über langfristige LNG-Abnahmeverträge; in den sieben geprüften SEC-Unterlagen (Geschäftsberichte 10-K 2024 und 2025, die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte 10-Q sowie die Einladung zur Hauptversammlung DEF 14A vom 23.04.2026) gibt es weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle noch belegten operativen KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko für das eigene Modell: Die Begriffe „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ und „AI“ kommen in keinem der vier Quartalsberichte und im Geschäftsbericht 2024 kein einziges Mal vor, im Geschäftsbericht 2025 genau einmal — als allgemeine Cybersicherheits-Floskel im Risikoteil („as cyberattacks continue to evolve, including use of artificial intelligence“), die nach dem Kriterienkatalog ausdrücklich kein „Bedroht“-Beleg ist; die einzige weitere Erwähnung steht in der Hauptversammlungs-Einladung in der Lebenslauf-Passage eines Aufsichtsrats (Beiratsmandat bei einem KI-Wagniskapitalgeber) und betrifft das Geschäft von NextDecade gar nicht. Auffällig ist zudem, was fehlt: Das sonst branchenübliche Nachfrage-Argument „Strombedarf von Rechenzentren“ taucht in keiner der geprüften Unterlagen auf — die Wörter „data center“ und „hyperscale“ kommen dort kein einziges Mal vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-30 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-K 2025-02-28 · DEF 14A 2026-04-23
Rated on July 31, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.39 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | 6 | -572 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.80 | 233.30 | 0 | – | – | -64 | -569 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.25 | -52.80 | 8 | 754.90 | 844.20 | -9 | -704 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.34 | -409.10 | 0 | – | – | -69 | -839 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.29 | 26.60 | 0 | – | – | -4 | -736 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.42 | -152.50 | 0 | – | – | -76 | -1,434 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.89 | -454.80 | 0 | -100.00 | – | -21 | -2,292 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.51 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | -111 | -1,288 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.25 | -8.70 | 0 | – | – | -17 | -998 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
As of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 were 74.0 percent complete (engineering 99.1, procurement 97.8, construction 58.9 percent), Train 3 50.4 percent, Train 4 15.5 percent and Train 5 9.4 percent. Phase 1 is ahead of the guaranteed schedule, Trains 4 and 5 are on plan, and the timeline is unchanged from the prior quarter: first gas in the second half of 2026, first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027. Sold are 25.3 MTPA across 14 counterparties with a weighted 19.5 years remaining; the expected fixed fees from the 23.75 MTPA of Henry Hub-linked contracts run to roughly $3.0 billion a year. Bechtel builds at a fixed price with guaranteed performance.
The annual report (Form 10-K) for 2025 puts the entitlement at up to about 20.8 percent of the available cash distributions from Phase 1 — and makes clear in the same sentence that the majority of that share is paid only after the equity partners have received their agreed distribution threshold and any deficit payments from earlier periods. At Train 4 it is 40 percent (rising to 60), at Train 5 50 percent (rising to 70). The balance sheet nevertheless consolidates 100 percent: as of December 31, 2025, $12.127 billion of the $12.426 billion of total assets and $8.617 billion of the $10.125 billion of liabilities sat in the joint ventures. Every resolution there also requires a majority of both classes of managers.
Equity attributable to NextDecade stockholders fell from $377.641 million (December 31, 2024) via $95.338 million (December 31, 2025) to minus $57.280 million as of June 30, 2026, roughly minus $0.22 per share. The accumulated deficit rose in that same half-year from $759.957 million to $961.789 million. Non-controlling interests reached $2,873.882 million, or 102 percent of the entire reported equity of $2,816.602 million. A price-to-book ratio can no longer be formed from that.
In the first half of 2026 NextDecade incurred $434.244 million of interest (prior-year period $192.615 million); $264.220 million of it was capitalized as construction cost (60.8 percent) and only $170.024 million appeared in the income statement — against zero revenue. Just $47.250 million was paid in cash, and another $36.502 million was added to the debt in kind. Operating cash flow was minus $128.016 million after minus $169.397 million for all of 2025; liquidity fell from $707.088 million to $499.569 million, of which only $83.678 million is unrestricted.
The project debt sits without recourse to NextDecade in the subsidiaries; no principal falls due from 2026 through 2029, and only roughly $4.49 billion in 2030. The refinancing is running to plan: $3.5 billion of notes in four tranches on July 2, 2026, with more than $6.4 billion of the original $11.1 billion of Phase 1 construction loans refinanced (as of July 29, 2026). Global Infrastructure Partners (BlackRock), GIC, Mubadala and TotalEnergies keep paying in — TotalEnergies alone roughly $377.5 million in the first half of 2026. On the other side: the new $1.0 billion loan at 7.05 percent at a new level above the project company, with interest added to the debt by default until after June 17, 2029; the corporate Series B loan at 13.50 percent (mandatorily half in cash from March 31, 2027); and the net assets of the subsidiaries tied to conditions, while the parent company held zero current assets as of December 31, 2025.
All material permits for Trains 1 through 5 are in hand, and FERC reaffirmed them in August 2025. Since December 2025, however, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has again been reviewing the remand order; the case is pending with no decision date, and the petitioners are not named in the report. The quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026 reports no other legal proceedings. On the data: as a project developer without revenue, NextDecade publishes no quarterly results releases (8-K, Item 2.02) — the only such filing in its corporate history dates from July 28, 2017. Metrics from data feeds come up empty for want of profit, revenue and positive equity.
NextDecade is building one of the largest LNG plants in the United States on the Brownsville Ship Channel for roughly $31.4 billion — as of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 are 74.0 percent complete, 25.3 million tonnes of annual capacity are sold for a weighted 19.5 years, and the schedule is holding. Almost all of it has been paid for with other people's money: the consolidated total assets of roughly $15.2 billion sit largely in joint ventures whose Phase 1 distributions entitle NextDecade to no more than about 20.8 percent — and the majority of that only after the financing partners. Equity attributable to its own shareholders tipped from $95.338 million to minus $57.280 million in the first half of 2026, interest reached $434.244 million in six months against zero revenue, and $128.016 million flowed out of operations. Anyone buying here is buying a subordinated share of distributions that cannot begin before 2027 at the earliest. Not investment advice.
- NEXT reached our research list through the Reddit hype watch run of our in-house stock scanner, cut-off date July 31, 2026 — that is, through the sheer frequency of mentions in investor forums. That is a reason to read the original documents, not a quality signal. Classic metric screens do not grip here anyway: no profit means no P/E, no revenue means no P/S, and without positive equity there is no meaningful P/B. The fundamental data shows a Piotroski score of 1 out of 9, an Altman Z of −0.11 and an equity ratio of 0.8 percent as of July 31, 2026.
- Recency gate: the most recent periodic report is the quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026, filed July 30, 2026; it has been evaluated. There is no same-day results release (8-K, Item 2.02) — and that is structural: NextDecade has filed exactly one 8-K carrying Item 2.02 in its entire corporate history, on July 28, 2017 in the course of the SPAC merger. As a project developer without revenue the company publishes no quarterly results releases through EDGAR. Also filed on July 30, 2026 and evaluated: the registration statement S-8 covering 5,000,000 employee shares. Every filing since the annual report was reviewed individually: 8-K of April 15, 2026, DEF 14A of April 23, 2026, S-3ASR of May 13, 2026, DEFA14A of May 19, 2026, 8-K of June 3, 2026, SCHEDULE 13D of June 10, 2026, 8-K of June 18, 2026, 8-K of July 2, 2026. No Form 25, no Form 15, no 424B*.
- Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: the only price documented in a filing is $8.50 of May 12, 2026 (cover page of the S-3ASR), giving a market value of roughly $2.26 billion; as of July 31, 2026 it is $6.73 and roughly $1.79 billion (266,185,433 x $6.73). The feed market value ($1.68 billion) uses the share count of May 8, 2026 and the prior close and deviates from the same arithmetic by less than one percent. Traps to avoid: the 2024 consolidated net income of $277.447 million was a loss of $61.751 million for shareholders, because $339.198 million was allocated to the partners; the $3.5 billion notes offering of July 2, 2026 is a refinancing and not additional debt; and the 19,730,742 shares registered on May 13, 2026 are a resale shelf for existing holders from which NextDecade receives not a dollar.
About the Company
NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States. The company constructs and develops natural gas liquefaction and export facilities located in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas; and a carbon capture and storage project at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. It is also involved in the sale of LNG. NextDecade Corporation was founded in 2010 and is based in Houston, Texas.
| Employees | 360 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Houston, TX |
| Website | next-decade.com |
| IPO Date | 4. Jun 2015 |
| Next Earnings | 30. Jul 2026 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew K. Schatzman | Chairman & CEO | 1966 |
| Tarik Skeik | Chief Operating Officer | 1981 |
| Vera De Brito de Gyarfas | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1967 |
| Luke Boylston | Chief Accounting Officer | 1990 |
| Raquel Couri | Executive Vice President of Human Resources & Administration | – |
| Megan Light | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| James MacTaggart | Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Ariel Handler | Executive VP of Commercial & Carbon Solutions | – |
| Alexander Thompson | Senior Vice President of Engineering & Construction | – |
| Paul Bruner | Senior Vice President of Operations | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.