LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)
🔔 Watch stock
Our Rating
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Buying today is not a bet on a market share but on a window of time: that the electric motorcycle market grows faster than LiveWire runs out of equity — $11.9 million as of June 30, 2026, against company guidance of a $70 million to $80 million operating loss for 2026 and a $75 million repayment due December 15, 2027. And that Harley-Davidson, holding 88.4 percent, keeps funding it even though nothing obliges the parent to. If you wait, check three lines in every quarterly report: equity, cash, and motorcycle units sold. The extremely tight float of roughly 12.6 million shares makes the price additionally independent of the business — that is the reason for caution. The decision is yours.
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
LiveWire, the electric motorcycle arm Harley-Davidson spun off in 2022, reported a 76 percent share of the U.S. market for street-legal electric motorcycles above 50 kilowatts for the first half of 2026. The number is accurate — the company also sold just 653 motorcycles in all of 2025, and its bigger business is kids' balance bikes. As of June 30, 2026, shareholders' equity of $11.9 million sat against $76.8 million owed to the majority owner, secured by substantially all assets. The ticker surfaced on Reddit with 5 mentions in 24 hours on July 25, 2026. No recommendation — just the arithmetic behind the percent sign.
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralKein KI-Geschaeftsmodell und kein belegter KI-Einsatz: In den Filings 2025/2026 kommt „artificial intelligence“ nur einmal vor, und zwar als Datenschutz-Risikohinweis; die Fahrzeugtechnik ist vernetzte Telematik (Cloud-Anbindung, Firmware-Updates ueber Funk), keine KI.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-20 · 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 8-K 2026-07-23 · 8-K 2026-05-22 · 8-K 2026-02-10 · DEF 14A 2026-04-09
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | -0.11 | -1.50 | 4 | -45.40 | -510.60 | -23 | -25 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.11 | 25.30 | 11 | -28.70 | -211.70 | -22 | -23 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.09 | -5.20 | 3 | -44.90 | -702.60 | -18 | -18 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.09 | 30.80 | 6 | -8.90 | -320.60 | -15 | -16 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.10 | 14.80 | 6 | 28.30 | -340.20 | -13 | -14 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.09 | 22.90 | 11 | 5.50 | -155.20 | -8 | -9 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.09 | 6.40 | 5 | 86.50 | -354.40 | -13 | -14 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 9 | 55.20 | -199.80 | -13 | -14 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The turnaround delivers measurably: net loss down from $109.6 million (2023) to $93.9 million (2024) and $75.1 million (2025), total operating costs from $154.0 million to $101.2 million. Free cash outflow in the first half of 2026 was $27.7 million against $34.4 million a year earlier.
The reported 76 percent market share (year-to-date through June 30, 2026, U.S. segment of 50 kilowatts and above) rests on 653 motorcycles sold in 2025 and 358 in the first half of 2026. Motorcycle segment revenue has fallen from $11.5 million in 2023 to $6.1 million; the larger business is kids' balance bikes at $19.6 million.
Shareholders' equity fell from $115.1 million (Dec 31, 2024) to $46.0 million (Dec 31, 2025) and $11.9 million (June 30, 2026); cash from $82.8 million to $52.9 million. Against that stand $76.8 million of debt secured on substantially all assets and maturing December 15, 2027 — with company guidance of a $70 million to $80 million operating loss for 2026.
Harley-Davidson holds 88.40 percent of the shares through a subsidiary (March 23, 2026) and is simultaneously lender, contract manufacturer and service provider — and must approve every equity raise under the at-the-market program. The first $10.0 million of net proceeds flows back to that same owner as a mandatory prepayment.
The cheaper S4 Honcho entered production in the second quarter of 2026, and the Dust Motorcycles acquisition (May 18, 2026) opens the off-road segment. Unit sales are picking up (Q2 2026: 267 against 55). The acquisition, however, is paid largely in the company's own shares, with an earn-out of up to $11.25 million.
The float is roughly 12.6 million of 204.8 million shares (as of July 25, 2026). On July 24, 2026, 103.3 million shares traded in a single day — many times the float. In a stock this tight, the price can diverge far from business performance, in both directions.
LiveWire is the percentage-without-a-denominator trap in its purest form: the reported 76 percent share of the U.S. market for electric motorcycles above 50 kilowatts is documented — but it rests on 653 motorcycles sold in 2025 and 358 in the first half of 2026, while the larger business is kids' balance bikes. The cost turnaround is genuinely working (net loss reduced from $109.6 million to $75.1 million, second quarter 2026 revenue up 55 percent), yet the cushion is melting faster: $11.9 million of equity as of June 30, 2026 against $76.8 million of secured debt owed to majority owner Harley-Davidson, which holds 88.40 percent of the shares and must approve any equity raise. Not investment advice.
- LVWR reached the research list through our in-house Reddit hype scanner: 5 mentions in 24 hours and rank 81 among the most-discussed U.S. stocks, after the ticker had not been listed at all 24 hours earlier (ApeWisdom data, as of July 25, 2026). In the fundamental scanners the stock sits, as of the same date, in "Going Concern (distress proxy)", "Professionals 80%" and "Below the 50- and 200-day average". Scanner memberships are snapshots and change daily.
- An important qualification on the distress filter: the Form 10-K for 2025 contains no going-concern warning from the auditor. The Form 10-Q for March 31, 2026 expressly states that existing resources are sufficient for at least twelve months — and that additional capital will be required. Both statements sit in the same paragraph.
- All valuation figures are dated and meant to be evergreen: market capitalization of roughly $299 million as of the July 24, 2026 trading day, trailing four-quarter revenue of $31.3 million. Daily prices are not a reason to buy. Not to be confused: LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is a separate listed company and is not identical to the LiveWire reportable segment inside Harley-Davidson, whose figures under U.S. GAAP may differ.
About the Company
LiveWire Group, Inc. manufactures and sells electric motorcycles in the United States, Austria, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Electric Motorcycles and STACYC. It designs and sells electric motorcycles and parts, accessories, and apparel; electric balance bikes for kids; and adult pedal assist electric bikes. The company sells its products to wholesale, independent dealers and retailers, and independent distributors, as well as direct to consumers online. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. LiveWire Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc.
| IPO Year | 2022 |
|---|
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 25, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.