Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
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Virgin Galactic has a spaceship factory in Arizona, a spaceport in New Mexico, a global brand and about 675 paid reservations — but nobody has flown since June 2024, and the stock shows up in our warning scanner "Thomas Inso Kandidat". We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: $1.5 million in revenue against a $278.9 million loss, a cash pile that has more than halved in five quarters, a debt restructuring from 2.5 to 9.8 percent interest — and, for the first time, official doubt about the company's survival. Everything hangs on one date in the fourth quarter of 2026. Not investment advice — just a countdown in which we count along every number straight from the original filings.
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.69 | – | 0 | -84.70 | -17,811.90 | -81 | -117 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.76 | – | 1 | -76.80 | -18,326.90 | -76 | -122 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.61 | – | 0 | -90.40 | -16,571.40 | -55 | -114 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -9.20 | -17,648.50 | -56 | -108 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.56 | – | 0 | -27.30 | -20,103.50 | -53 | -95 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -50.80 | -28,508.80 | -54 | -93 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
A unique, flight-proven product (seven commercial flights in 2023/24) with documented paying demand: about 675 reservations, roughly $188 million in expected spaceflight revenue, new tickets at a $750,000 base price (annual report 10-K for 2025). The Arizona factory is finished, the timetable most recently confirmed.
Research and development costs cut 47 percent in 2025, operating cash outflow reduced from $352.7 to $240.1 million (Q1 2026: $53.5 million); the investment peak, per the report, lies behind the company. But: all of it is consumption reduction — income only arrives after the restart in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Practically no revenue since the flight pause in June 2024 (2025: $1.5 million; Q1 2026: $0.2 million) against net losses of $278.9 million (2025) and $64.7 million (Q1 2026). The loss is falling for the second year in a row — but a company that loses one hundred times its revenue lives off its cash, not its business.
A going-concern warning in the 10-K and 10-Q for the first time: $250.5 million of cash and securities (March 31, 2026) against roughly $93 million of outflow per quarter plus $30.4 million of mandatory redemption by September 30, 2026; the counter-plans are explicitly deemed "not probable" under ASC 205-40. The December 2025 restructuring (2.5 to 9.8 percent, first-priority security, "troubled debt restructuring") shows the price at which fresh money was last available.
Share count plus 147 percent in fifteen months (33.0 to 81.4 million), an at-the-market program of up to $300 million, warrants on 31.7 million shares; $70.4 million of convertible notes due in cash in February 2027. The brand only rented from Branson's Virgin Enterprises (2025: a $2.5 million fee — more than revenue; termination right after a long flight pause), veto rights of the Branson vehicle VIL.
Virgin Galactic is no empty shell: the product flew and was paid for, 675 customers are waiting with a $188 million order backlog, the factory stands, the restart is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026. But the waiting period costs roughly $93 million per quarter against $250.5 million of cash and securities, the annual report itself doubts the company's survival for the first time, the debt restructuring brought 9.8 percent interest and a lien on almost everything, and the waiting period has been paid for with ever more new shares for years. Not investment advice.
- A going-concern warning is a standardized warning under ASC 205-40 (a calculation without future revenue and capital measures) — it is not an insolvency verdict, and this analysis expressly renders none.
- The order backlog of roughly $188 million across 675 reservations averages out to roughly $279,000 per person — many reservations stem from earlier, considerably cheaper pricing rounds; new tickets cost a $750,000 base price (2021: $450,000; 2023: $600,000).
- Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-July 2026 (about $2.50, market value ~$275 million); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., ein Luft- und Raumfahrt- sowie Weltraumreiseunternehmen, konzentriert sich auf Entwicklung, Herstellung und Betrieb von Raumschiffen und zugehörigen Technologien.
| IPO Year | 2019 |
|---|---|
| Next Earnings | 5. Aug 2026 |
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Data as of: July 2, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.