Redwire Corp (RDW)
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Redwire Space reported a record backlog of $498.1 million for the first quarter of 2026 and a gross margin that nearly doubled within a year. The same report also says: the company's own internal control over financial reporting was not effective as of December 31, 2025, and the share count has nearly tripled since August 2024 — with a freshly launched $500 million dilution program still running. This Redwire stock forecast sorts the record backlog, the governance finding and the dilution before it names a single number. Not investment advice — just the question of which of the two stories ends up weighing more with you.
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This stock currently matches 5 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -1.01 | – | 70 | 9.60 | -96.60 | 7 | 3 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.04 | – | 61 | -30.10 | -4.80 | -45 | -47 |
| 2025: Q2 | -1.08 | – | 62 | -20.90 | -157.00 | -88 | -91 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.40 | – | 103 | 50.70 | -39.80 | -20 | -28 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.50 | – | 109 | 56.40 | -78.60 | -24 | -30 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.40 | – | 97 | 57.90 | -78.90 | -8 | -12 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Redwire's own management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was not effective as of December 31, 2025; auditor KPMG confirmed that with an "adverse opinion" — the harshest rating available. The newly acquired Edge Autonomy unit (10% of total assets, 32% of revenue) was excluded from this assessment entirely.
The share count rose from 66.5 million (08/04/2024) to 198,918,728 (05/01/2026) — nearly tripling. The third ATM program within eight months ($250 million → $350 million → $500 million) keeps running, with an untapped reservoir of convertible preferred stock and warrants on top.
Gross margin of 27 percent in Q1 2026 (prior-year quarter 15%), operating cash flow nearly break-even (−$6.7 million, prior-year quarter −$45.1 million), record backlog of $498.1 million at a book-to-bill of 1.92. A genuine operating step forward versus fiscal 2025.
$721.3 million of goodwill from the Edge acquisition (roughly 68% of equity) — already in the fourth quarter of 2025, two quarters after closing, a $34.7 million impairment followed. KPMG itself flags the purchase price allocation as a "Critical Audit Matter."
JPMorgan term loan cut to $50 million (prepayment 07/01/2026), effective interest rate reduced from 13.31 to 8.06 percent. Total equity flipped from −$188.7 million to +$1,087.5 million — driven overwhelmingly by new shares, not earnings.
The $226.6 million net loss (FY2025) includes $54.5 million of fixed-price contract rebookings; the $76.5 million Q1 2026 loss includes more than $44 million of one-time effects from accelerated stock vesting. Adjusted EBITDA remains negative even excluding those effects (−$9.2 million, Q1 2026).
Redwire Space, for the first time since the Edge Autonomy acquisition, shows a clearly identifiable operating turnaround: gross margin and operating cash flow improved noticeably in the first quarter of 2026, backlog hit a record $498.1 million, and the expensive JPMorgan loan was paid down to $50 million by July 1, 2026. Over the same window, though, the company admitted internal control over financial reporting was not effective (KPMG "adverse opinion," as of 12/31/2025), the share count nearly tripled since August 2024, and $721.3 million of goodwill from the Edge bet carries a concentration risk that has already triggered one impairment. Not investment advice.
- Redwire reached our research list via our in-house stock scanner, triggered by a contradiction between balance-sheet strength (equity ratio 73.15%, debt-to-equity 0.087) and middling overall quality (Piotroski 4 of 9, Altman Z-score 2.31 in the gray zone; data as of 07/31/2026) — on a stock that hit an all-time high of $26.64 in the spring 2026 SpaceX hype and had given back roughly two-thirds of it by 07/31/2026.
- Recency gate: the most recent periodic report evaluated is the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026, filed May 7, 2026. The second-quarter 2026 report was announced as of this analysis's data cutoff (08/01/2026) — for 08/05/2026 (call 08/06/2026) — but had not yet been filed; every statement about it is deliberately flagged as a dated outlook.
- Market-cap cross-check: share count of 198,918,728 (05/01/2026) times the most recent price documented in a mandatory filing, $9.74 (Form 4, 07/14/2026), yields roughly $1.94 billion; the feed market value of roughly $2.02 billion (07/31/2026) differs by roughly 4% — plausibly explained by further ATM sales and price movement, well below the threshold for an unreliable-data flag.
- Risk of confusion: Redwire Corporation (Redwire Space, NYSE: RDW) is an independent company with no tie to SpaceX; name and topical similarity caused confusion on forums during the spring 2026 SpaceX-IPO hype.
- The quality light rates the company, not the entry price: whether the stock is cheap or expensive at the current price ($8.62, 07/31/2026) is a question for the scanners and valuation metrics (price-to-sales roughly 5.5, price-to-book roughly 1.7), not this light.
About the Company
Redwire Corporation bietet kritische Weltraumlösungen und Weltrauminfrastruktur für staatliche und kommerzielle Kunden in den USA, Europa und international an. Es ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Space und Defense Tech.
| Employees | 1,400 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Jacksonville, FL |
| Website | rdw.com |
| IPO Date | 2. Sep 2021 |
| Next Earnings | 5. Aug 2026 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Anthony Cannito Jr. | President, CEO & Chairman | 1973 |
| Chris Edmunds | Chief Financial Officer | 1984 |
| Aaron Futch | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1973 |
| Austin Jordan | Executive VP of Strategic Communications & Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Michael Gold | President of Redwire Space | 1974 |
| Jeff Zeunik | Senior Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis | – |
| Allen G. Flynt | Senior Vice President of Space Platforms & Robotics | – |
| Alex Curatolo | Senior Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Steve Adlich | President of Redwire Defense Tech | 1963 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.