PROG Holdings Inc (PRG)
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Our Rating
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The valuation is undemanding and the business earns money — but the decisive number is still outstanding. Whoever waits checks four lines in the next quarterly report (10-Q): the pre-tax result of the Purchasing Power segment (last: minus $7.5 million), its provision for credit losses ($12.96 million), Progressive Leasing new volume (last: $393.0 million for the quarter) and gross debt ($943.7 million). If the first two turn positive, the acquisition was well timed; if the third keeps falling, you are buying rebuild risk at book value. A 122 percent beat measures the estimate, not the company. The decision is yours.
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
PROG Holdings leases sofas, phones and jewelry to shoppers who cannot get credit — and it now appears in two of our rankings (as of July 25, 2026) because the first quarter of 2026 beat the consensus by 122 percent. We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025, the quarterly report as of March 31, 2026, and four current reports: $2.4 billion in revenue, a price-earnings ratio around 11 — but also a shrinking core business, a segment bought for $424 million that lost $7.5 million before tax in its first quarter, and a leverage cap that had to be raised. This analysis does the math on what a beat is worth once you own the company behind it.
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 18 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIPROG Holdings verkauft keine KI, setzt sie aber operativ ein: Die BNPL-Tochter Four entscheidet Kreditanfragen mit maschinellem Lernen, und der Konzern investiert nach eigener Angabe in generative KI-Werkzeuge für interne Prozesse und Produktentwicklung.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are also investing in artificial intelligence (“AI”) solutions, including generative AI tools that collect and analyze data to assist in the development of our products and services and in the use of internal tools that support our businesses. These applications have and likely will continue to become increasingly important in our operations over time."
Wir investieren außerdem in Lösungen der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“), darunter generative KI-Werkzeuge, die Daten sammeln und auswerten, um die Entwicklung unserer Produkte und Dienstleistungen sowie den Einsatz interner Werkzeuge zur Unterstützung unserer Geschäfte zu begleiten. Diese Anwendungen sind für unseren Betrieb bereits wichtiger geworden und dürften es im Zeitverlauf weiter werden.
„Leveraging data science, automation, and machine learning, Four delivers efficient underwriting and consistent credit outcomes while supporting purchases across a diverse range of merchants and product categories."
Mit Datenwissenschaft, Automatisierung und maschinellem Lernen liefert Four eine effiziente Kreditprüfung und gleichmäßige Kreditergebnisse und unterstützt zugleich Käufe bei einer breiten Auswahl von Händlern und Produktkategorien.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 10-Q 2025-10-22 · 10-Q 2025-07-23 · 10-Q 2025-04-23 · 10-K 2025-02-19
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 592 | -0.10 | 5.70 | 55 | 54 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.77 | -14.40 | 606 | 4.00 | 13.90 | 32 | 30 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.80 | 11.10 | 623 | 8.00 | 9.20 | -85 | -87 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.90 | -1.10 | 684 | 6.60 | 5.10 | 210 | 208 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.02 | 10.90 | 605 | 2.10 | 6.40 | 70 | 68 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.90 | 16.90 | 595 | -1.80 | 5.60 | 110 | 107 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.74 | -7.50 | 575 | -7.80 | 7.00 | -55 | -58 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.89 | -1.10 | 743 | 8.60 | 4.90 | 172 | 169 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
$174.5 million of pre-tax earnings from continuing operations in 2025 and $335.0 million of operating cash flow against a market capitalization of roughly $1.75 billion — a price-earnings ratio around 11, price-sales around 0.7 and an equity ratio of 46 percent (10-K 2025; data as of July 24 and 25, 2026).
New volume of $101.1 million, $301.6 million and $736.5 million from 2023 to 2025, plus $280.0 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 133.6 percent; 486,000 active customers as of December 31, 2025; the segment already earns $11.4 million before tax (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
96 percent of revenue is shrinking in volume, revenue and customer count at once: new volume down 8.6 percent to $1,760.8 million in 2025, active customers from 934,000 to 838,000 to 763,000 between December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2026; two retail partners each account for more than 10 percent of consolidated revenue (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
$424.2 million in cash for a business that produced a $7.5 million pre-tax loss on $107.1 million of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 — weighed down by $9.7 million of transaction costs, $8.1 million of amortization on acquired assets and a $12.96 million provision for credit losses (10-Q as of March 31, 2026, Notes 2 and 11).
Gross debt rose from $600.0 million to $943.7 million and cash fell from $308.8 million to $69.4 million between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026; the credit agreement leverage cap was lifted from 2.50x to 3.25x for 2026 on January 2, 2026; interest expense was $18.4 million against $10.0 million a year earlier (8-K dated January 2, 2026; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026, Note 7).
A write-off provision of 7.5 percent of lease revenues in 2025 sits in the upper third of the company's own 6 to 8 percent target range; permanent oversight by the FTC ($175 million settlement in 2020, renewed document request in 2024), by the states, and since December 2025 by seven attorneys general examining buy now, pay later (10-K 2025, Items 1 and 1A).
PROG Holdings is not a momentum name in the usual sense but a solidly profitable lease-to-own business in the middle of a rebuild: the Progressive Leasing core carries 96 percent of revenue and is shrinking on every metric, while the buy now, pay later unit Four grows at triple-digit rates and Purchasing Power, bought for $424.2 million, still produced a $7.5 million pre-tax loss in the first quarter of 2026. The deal was paid for not in shares but in debt — gross debt climbed to $943.7 million and the leverage cap had to be raised. Buying here is not buying the 122 percent earnings surprise; it is betting that the acquisition turns its start-up loss faster than the core shrinks. Not investment advice.
- PRG made the research list twice over: rank 32 of 81 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise scanner and rank 27 of 28 in the Richard Moglen 1-Week Top Performers scanner (U.S. selection, both as of July 25, 2026, relative strength 76). Both rankings are recomputed daily.
- Valuation and scanner metrics use data as of July 24 and 25, 2026; balance sheet and segment figures come from the quarterly report as of March 31, 2026 and the 2025 annual report. The market capitalization was cross-checked: 40,065,564 shares (10-Q cover page, April 24, 2026) times the July 24, 2026 closing price of $43.71.
- Do not confuse the names: PROG Holdings is not the furniture retailer Aaron's (NYSE: AAN), from which the holding company separated in October 2020, and not the biotechnology name Precigen (Nasdaq: PGEN). The ticker PRG trades on the New York Stock Exchange.
- Vive Financial, a separate segment until October 20, 2025, was sold and is reported as a discontinued operation; every revenue and earnings series in this analysis therefore refers to continuing operations.
About the Company
PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.
| Employees | 1,235 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Draper, UT |
| Website | progholdings.com |
| IPO Date | 7. Sep 1984 |
| Next Earnings | 22. Jul 2026 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Steven A. Michaels | CEO, President & Chairman | 1972 |
| Brian J. Garner | Chief Financial Officer | 1981 |
| Todd King | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Curtis L. Doman | Co-Founder & Director | 1973 |
| Trevor Thatcher | Chief Operations Officer | 1976 |
| George Matt Sewell | Senior VP of Financial Reporting & Principal Accounting Officer | 1976 |
| Sridhar Nallani | Chief Technology Officer | 1971 |
| John Allen Baugh C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | 1961 |
| Mark Delcorps | Director of Corporate Communications | – |
| Debra A. Fiori | Chief People Officer | 1971 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 24, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.