Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
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Deckers Outdoor earned more than a billion dollars for the first time in fiscal year 2026 (through March 31) — carried by exactly two brands: HOKA and UGG account for 97.3 percent of revenue. At the same time the stock trades more than half below its early-2025 high, and no fewer than three of our value scanners light up, first among them Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula. We ran the cross-check — in the annual report (10-K) and the quarterly reports (10-Q): this time the value label is genuine. But the original also shows what the red price tag conceals: a U.S. market that has practically stalled, a HOKA growth staircase that leads downward, and tariffs gnawing at the margin. Not investment advice — just a fitting at the original document before the clearance-sale reflex grabs hold.
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 3.00 | 19.00 | 1,827 | 17.10 | 25.00 | 1,095 | 1,071 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.99 | 20.30 | 1,022 | 6.50 | 14.80 | -73 | -89 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.93 | 23.50 | 965 | 16.90 | 14.40 | 36 | 12 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.80 | 13.70 | 1,431 | 9.10 | 18.70 | 8 | -14 |
| 2025: Q4 | 3.27 | 9.10 | 1,958 | 7.10 | 24.60 | 1,042 | 1,020 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.96 | -3.40 | 1,114 | 9.00 | 12.20 | 96 | 163 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
HOKA and UGG are global brands with genuine pricing power: 57.7 percent gross margin, 23.1 percent operating margin, 41 percent return on equity — earnings per share have more than doubled since fiscal year 2023, from $3.23 to $7.02 (10-K, fiscal year 2026).
$1.91 billion in cash, no drawn bank loans, goodwill of only $14 million; buybacks of $1.08 billion in fiscal year 2026 and an authorization topped up to about $4.84 billion (May 2026) — roughly a third of the market value. No dividend since the IPO.
The Greenblatt hit survives the cross-check (return-on-capital approximation about 27.8 percent against a threshold of 25; P/E about 15), flanked by Levermann (4 points) and Buffett's owner-earnings yield. Net of the cash, the operating business costs about twelve times annual earnings (data as of July 8, 2026).
U.S. revenue grew only 0.2 percent in fiscal year 2026 — all growth came from abroad (+26.8 percent). HOKA's growth staircase leads downward (27.9 → 23.6 → 15.9 percent), UGG grew only 4.9 percent in the holiday quarter; Stage 1 and a relative strength of 34 show the market has priced that in.
Two brands carry 97.3 percent of revenue in an industry with a declared fashion risk; manufacturing concentrates on Vietnam and Indonesia, the UGG sheepskin on two tanneries in China. Tariffs have already pressed the gross margin, and per the 10-K the margin protection may not be repeatable in fiscal year 2027.
Deckers is the rare case in which the value signal survives the recalculation: a debt-free two-brand group with a record profit above the billion, a 41 percent return on equity and a P/E around 15 — net of cash, about twelve times earnings. But the discount has nameable reasons: the U.S. market stagnates at plus 0.2 percent, HOKA's growth staircase leads downward, UGG remains a question of fashion, and tariffs as well as sourcing clusters (Vietnam/Indonesia, two tanneries) make the crown-jewel gross margin vulnerable. The market is pricing in stagnation; any stabilization of the home market would be a positive surprise — any fashion turn at UGG or HOKA an expensive one. Not investment advice.
- Unlike the Kirby case (a data error), the Greenblatt hit here survives the cross-check against the 10-K figures; the calculation is disclosed in the text. The scanner row is documented in the screenshot (data as of July 8, 2026, confirmed live on July 14, 2026).
- Deckers has an offset fiscal year (ending March 31): "fiscal year 2026" = April 2025 through March 2026. All balance-sheet and earnings figures come from the SEC filings (10-K, filed 22.05.2026; 10-Q as of 31.12.2025, filed 03.02.2026) and are dated in the text; valuation figures carry the data cut-off of July 8, 2026.
- Analyst estimates ($7.49 and $8.33 in earnings per share for fiscal years 2027/2028) are consensus forecasts of 24 professionals, not facts — with consumer brands, estimates have historically been revised heavily after fashion turns.
- Possible tariff refunds after the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling are carried at zero in the books (as of 31.03.2026) — a potential but uncertain one-off effect; size and timing are open.
About the Company
Deckers Outdoor Corporation entwirft, vermarktet und vertreibt mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften Schuhe, Bekleidung und Accessoires für den Freizeit-Lifestyle und Hochleistungsaktivitäten in den USA und international. Das Unternehmen bietet Schuhe, Bekleidung und Accessoires unter Marken wie UGG an.
| IPO Year | 1993 |
|---|---|
| Next Earnings | 23. Jul 2026 |
Chart
Data as of: July 2, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.