Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL)
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Collective Mining has been drilling in Colombia since 2021, reports spectacular grades and carries a market value of roughly a billion dollars. Its own annual report to the U.S. securities regulator answers with one very dry sentence: the company holds neither mineral resources nor mineral reserves. There has been no revenue since inception, the net loss widened to $49.9 million in 2025, and the share count grew 51 percent in two years. Since May 2026 a C$500 million shelf prospectus has been sitting ready. A London fund still holds the stock as the fourth-largest position in its portfolio and has added for four quarters straight. Not investment advice — just the question of what you actually own while the treasure exists only as a drill hole.
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AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 24.07.2026 gegen die vollständige SEC-Berichtslage der Collective Mining Ltd. (CIK 0001953575). Collective Mining ist kanadischer MJDS-Filer: Es gibt kein 10-K und kein 10-Q, ausgewertet wurden deshalb der Jahresbericht 40-F für 2025 (eingereicht 31.03.2026) samt seinen drei Anhängen — Annual Information Form mit Risikofaktoren und technischem Bericht, geprüfter IFRS-Jahresabschluss und Lagebericht (MD&A) — sowie der Zwischenbericht zum 31.03.2026 (6-K vom 14.05.2026) mit Zwischenabschluss und Lagebericht und der Regalprospekt vom 12.05.2026 (6-K vom 13.05.2026). Dokumentierter Negativ-Befund: In keinem der sieben Dokumente kommt „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „deep learning“ oder „neural“ auch nur ein einziges Mal vor — weder im Geschäftsteil noch in den Risikofaktoren (einschließlich des eigenen Abschnitts „Cybersecurity“), weder als Umsatzquelle noch als operativer Einsatz noch als Geschäftsrisiko (Volltextsuche über die Original-HTML-Dateien). Die beiden einzigen Treffer auf „generative“ sind Fachbegriffe der Explorationsgeologie und ohne KI-Bezug: die Budgetzeile „Target generative work“ im empfohlenen Explorationsprogramm für Guayabales und die frühere Funktionsbezeichnung „Director – Generative Exploration Latin America“ eines 2026 eingestellten Managers. Collective Mining ist ein reines Explorationsunternehmen ohne Umsatz: Es bohrt in Caldas, Kolumbien, auf den Projekten Guayabales (Apollo-System) und San Antonio, weist laut eigenem Jahresbericht weder Mineralressourcen noch Mineralreserven aus und erzielte seit der Gründung keinen Umsatz. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog bleibt es damit bei „neutral“ (Rang 4, Negativ-Befund dokumentiert). Hinweis für die Fortschreibung: Sobald die Gesellschaft die im technischen Bericht empfohlene Ressourcenschätzung und die Wirtschaftlichkeitsstudien vorlegt (Stufe I bis Ende 2026, Stufe II bis Ende 2027), lohnt eine erneute Prüfung — in dieser Phase tauchen bei Bergbaugesellschaften erfahrungsgemäß erstmals Aussagen zu Modellierungs- und Automatisierungstechnik auf.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 40-F 2026-03-31 · 40-F Exhibit 99.1 (Annual Information Form 2025 inkl. Risk Factors und technischem Bericht Guayabales) 2026-03-31 · 40-F Exhibit 99.2 (geprüfter Jahresabschluss 2025, IFRS, Prüfer BDO Canada LLP) 2026-03-31 · 40-F Exhibit 99.3 (Lagebericht/MD&A Geschäftsjahr 2025) 2026-03-31 · 6-K Exhibit 99.1 (Zwischenabschluss zum 31.03.2026) 2026-05-14 · 6-K Exhibit 99.2 (Lagebericht/MD&A Q1 2026) 2026-05-14 · 6-K Exhibit 99.1 (Regalprospekt vom 12.05.2026 über 500 Mio. C$) 2026-05-13
Rated on July 24, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.09 | 11.20 | 0 | – | – | -7 | -7 |
| 2024: Q3 | -0.09 | -45.40 | 0 | – | – | -6 | -6 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.07 | 19.40 | 0 | – | – | -6 | -6 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.22 | -195.30 | 0 | – | – | -5 | -6 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.11 | -22.20 | 0 | – | – | -8 | -8 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.13 | -44.40 | 0 | – | – | -10 | -11 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.14 | -100.00 | 0 | – | – | -13 | -18 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.13 | 40.90 | 0 | – | – | -10 | -16 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The drill results are exceptional. About 184,000 meters of core had been pulled by July 2026, 120,000 of them at the Apollo system; 18 intercepts exceed 1,000 grams × meters of gold equivalent, the strongest reaching 1,499. On June 29, 2026 the company reported a new tungsten-rich zone with 27.35 meters at 37.55 grams of gold equivalent per tonne from 300 meters below surface. In 2025 it drilled 62,500 meters; up to 100,000 meters are planned for 2026 with 13 rigs.
The Form 40-F for 2025 states: "The Company currently does not have any mineral resources or mineral reserves." There is no NI 43-101 resource estimate for Guayabales; the technical report author classifies it as a discovery-stage project and budgets two program stages totalling about $80.4 million and two years through the end of 2027 — the first of them merely to deliver a resource estimate and a preliminary economic assessment. There has been no revenue since inception.
Shares issued rose from 61,234,906 (12.31.2023) to 92,575,498 (03.31.2026), up 51 percent in two years; fully diluted the count is 99,231,798. In 2025 alone $146.1 million came in from equity financings. On May 13, 2026 the company filed a base shelf prospectus for up to C$500 million with a 25-month term — roughly three times the 2025 raises and about a third of the market value. The company explicitly does not rule out substantial dilution.
Cash stood at $113.3 million on March 31, 2026 with essentially no bank debt, and the company calls its 2026 program fully funded. At the same time the balance fell by $16.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, and the February and March 2026 land purchases pushed instalment obligations from $4.7 million to $41.8 million, of which $16.0 million falls due within a year. The equity ratio dropped from 0.918 to about 0.72 and net current assets from $118.1 million to $63.3 million.
Agnico Eagle Mines reported 14.99 percent as of March 14, 2025 and holds contractual rights to participate in every financing and nominate a director; management, insiders, the strategic investor and close relations reach 45.2 percent by the company's own account. Add Helikon at about 11.9 percent and Jupiter Asset Management at 9.97 percent — the latter filed three overdue threshold statements on a single day, June 15, 2026. Strong anchors, but a thin free float.
The Annual Information Form names guerrilla groups and drug cartels, the Colombian government's suspension of peace talks in 2025, protected and restricted areas, and artisanal mining in four areas of the Guayabales project; part of the concessions is held only through option agreements and must be transferred by the mining agency ANM. As a Canadian MJDS filer and a young listed company, Collective Mining also publishes no audited quarterly reports and no auditor attestation on internal control.
Collective Mining is the treasure-map trap in its purest form: the Apollo discovery is real, the drill results are exceptional, and the team has already delivered one sale at roughly $2 billion of enterprise value with Continental Gold. None of it appears in the books: no revenue since inception, a $49.9 million net loss in 2025, a $144.6 million accumulated deficit — and, per the company's own annual report, neither mineral resources nor mineral reserves. Reaching that point takes, in the technical report author's estimate, roughly $80.4 million and two years. It is paid for with shares: 51 percent more of them in two years, plus a C$500 million shelf prospectus. Not investment advice.
- Collective Mining reached our research list not through a scanner hit but through the Form 13F-HR of Helikon Investments Ltd (London) as of March 31, 2026: 10,979,312 shares worth $193,345,684, the fourth-largest of 17 positions and about 11.9 percent of all shares outstanding. The fund has added for four consecutive quarters (9,916,894 → 10,455,037 → 10,650,248 → 10,979,312) and also reported its stake directly on Schedule 13G/A. A 13F shows only U.S.-listed long positions with a 35- to 45-day delay, without short sales or derivatives — a rear-view mirror, not a road map.
- Collective Mining is a Canadian MJDS filer with the SEC: there is no 10-K and no 10-Q. Audited figures appear once a year on Form 40-F (for 2025 filed March 31, 2026, auditor BDO Canada LLP); interim figures are furnished only as an unaudited exhibit to a Form 6-K. Accounting is under IFRS in U.S. dollars. As an "emerging growth company" the issuer is also exempt from the auditor attestation on internal control over financial reporting.
- On the metrics from the data series: the Altman Z-Score of 55.91 is arithmetically correct but substantively worthless — it arises almost entirely from the fact that the company had barely any liabilities at the end of 2025, so it essentially measures market value against debt and nothing else. Three months later liabilities had quadrupled. The Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9 is likewise no quality statement: several of the nine tests require profits and operating cash inflow that an explorer without revenue cannot produce. Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: the implied price of about $17.61 per share comes from the 13F filing as of March 31, 2026 and serves as an order of magnitude, not a daily price.
About the Company
Collective Mining Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties located in Colombia. The company explores gold, silver, copper, and tungsten deposits. It holds 100% interest in its flagship project The Guayabales project consisting of exploration titles, exploration applications, and mining concession option agreements and a number of surface rights option agreements. The Guayabales Project is located in the Middle Cauca belt in the Department of Caldas, Colombia. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.