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Buy Day today: Poor Neutral (49) Good Mixed market breadth · no major macro event

Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)

Industrials Farm & Heavy Construction Ma
81.50 $
Closing price · As of: 20. Jul 2026
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Read the Full Deep Dive
Blue Bird Stock: A Record Run in the Yellow School Bus — and the Switches Are Set in Washington and Quebec

Blue Bird builds America’s yellow school buses — and lights up our in-house stock scanner with 17 hits across momentum and quality filters at once (scanner run of July 17, 2026). We read the annual reports (10-K) for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the latest quarterly reports (10-Q) and the acquisition filings (8-K): a record year with $1.48 billion in revenue and $127.7 million in profit, a backlog that collapsed 36 percent in the tariff year, an electric story on the EPA’s drip — and a selling family that is now shareholder, board member, biggest dealer and landlord all at once. Not investment advice — just a look at the switches on the track that no chart plots.

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 18 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners

Basics

Market Cap
2.5Mrd. $
Shares Outstanding
32Mio.
Float
98.8%
Beta
1.3

Performance

Perf. 1M
11.60%
Perf. 3M
42.10%
Perf. 6M
51.10%
YTD Performance (%)
56.90%
52-Week-High Distance
-3.0%

Valuation

P/E
19.4
Forward P/E
15.6
PEG
1.1
P/B
8.4
P/S
1.7
EV/EBITDA
11.2
Price/FCF
13.8

Profitability

Gross Margin
21.0%
EBIT Margin
11.0%
Net Margin
8.9%
Return on Equity
54.5%
Return on Assets
18.0%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio
43.2%
Debt/Equity
0.3
fortress balance sheet
Altman Z
8.46
Piotroski
7 von 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter
-1.70%
EPS Growth Last Quarter
13.90%
Sales Growth (Year)
9.87%
Forward Sales Growth
13.80%
Forward EPS Growth
13.30%

Quality & Screener

Stage
2
RS Rating
81
EPS Rating
61
Piotroski
7 von 9
Fundamental Rating
B (+31 von 100)
fortress balance sheet
Altman Z
8.46

AI Rating

Neutral

Geprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen die Geschäftsberichte (10-K) für die Geschäftsjahre 2025 (eingereicht 24.11.2025) und 2024 (25.11.2024) sowie die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 28.03.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Blue Bird findet sich kein einziger Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „generative“ oder verwandten KI-Begriffen — weder als Umsatzquelle noch als operativer Einsatz noch als konkretes Geschäftsrisiko. Blue Bird ist ein Schulbus-Hersteller (Typ C/D, Propan-/Benzin-/Elektroantriebe); die Berichte behandeln Zölle, Förderprogramme (EPA Clean School Bus Program, DOE-Zuschuss), die Micro-Bird-Übernahme und Lieferketten, aber keinerlei KI-Bezug. Dokumentierter Negativ-Befund nach Kriterienkatalog → „neutral“.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 313.9 Mio. $ Q4 2025: Q1 · 358.9 Mio. $ Q1 2025: Q2 · 398.0 Mio. $ Q2 2025: Q3 · 409.4 Mio. $ Q3 2025: Q4 · 333.1 Mio. $ Q4 2026: Q1 · 352.6 Mio. $ Q1
Earnings Per Share Per Quarter ($)
2024: Q4 · 0.86 $ Q4 2025: Q1 · 0.79 $ Q1 2025: Q2 · 1.12 $ Q2 2025: Q3 · 1.11 $ Q3 2025: Q4 · 0.94 $ Q4 2026: Q1 · 0.90 $ Q1
Net Margin Per Quarter (%)
2024: Q4 · 9.2 % Q4 2025: Q1 · 7.3 % Q1 2025: Q2 · 9.2 % Q2 2025: Q3 · 8.9 % Q3 2025: Q4 · 9.2 % Q4 2026: Q1 · 8.3 % Q1
Operating Cash Flow Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 26.4 Mio. $ Q4 2025: Q1 · 27.8 Mio. $ Q1 2025: Q2 · 56.9 Mio. $ Q2 2025: Q3 · 65.1 Mio. $ Q3 2025: Q4 · 36.6 Mio. $ Q4 2026: Q1 · 47.8 Mio. $ Q1
Free Cash Flow Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 21.8 Mio. $ Q4 2025: Q1 · 18.7 Mio. $ Q1 2025: Q2 · 52.3 Mio. $ Q2 2025: Q3 · 60.5 Mio. $ Q3 2025: Q4 · 31.1 Mio. $ Q4 2026: Q1 · 39.9 Mio. $ Q1
Sales Growth vs. Year-Ago Quarter (%)
2024: Q4 · -1.2 % Q4 2025: Q1 · 3.7 % Q1 2025: Q2 · 19.4 % Q2 2025: Q3 · 16.9 % Q3 2025: Q4 · 6.1 % Q4 2026: Q1 · -1.7 % Q1
EPS Growth vs. Year-Ago Quarter (%)
2024: Q4 · 6.8 % Q4 2025: Q1 · 0.7 % Q1 2025: Q2 · 31.1 % Q2 2025: Q3 · 52.0 % Q3 2025: Q4 · 9.5 % Q4 2026: Q1 · 13.6 % Q1
Price Change in Quarter (%)
2024: Q4 · -19.5 % Q4 2025: Q1 · -16.2 % Q1 2025: Q2 · 33.3 % Q2 2025: Q3 · 33.3 % Q3 2025: Q4 · -18.3 % Q4 2026: Q1 · 20.8 % Q1

Quarterly Figures

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2024: Q4 0.86 6.80 314 -1.20 9.20 26 22
2025: Q1 0.79 0.70 359 3.70 7.30 28 19
2025: Q2 1.12 31.10 398 19.40 9.20 57 52
2025: Q3 1.11 52.00 409 16.90 8.90 65 61
2025: Q4 0.94 9.50 333 6.10 9.20 37 31
2026: Q1 0.90 13.60 353 -1.70 8.30 48 40
What Do These Terms Mean?
EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

Business performance & market position

Record fiscal 2025: $1,480.1 million in revenue (+9.9 percent), $127.7 million in net income, adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.0 percent after 7.8 percent in FY 2023; the only independent U.S. school bus maker, with an exclusive dealer network and roughly 64 percent market share in alternative powertrains (10-K FY 2025).

Balance sheet & capital returns

$275.9 million in cash against roughly $88 million in bank debt (03/28/2026, before the $63 million cash portion of the Micro Bird deal), a $150 million credit line untouched, Altman-Z around 8.5; buyback program topped up by $100 million in August 2025, $59.4 million of repurchases since October 2024 (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q as of 03/28/2026).

Order book & tariff cycle

Backlog down from roughly 4,800 to 3,070 units in the tariff year (minus 36 percent) because customers, per the quarterly report, deferred purchases on incalculable tariff charges; partial recovery to 3,560 units (03/28/2026), but units sold fell 6.4 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 — higher prices are masking shrinking volume.

Subsidy dependence of the electric story

Whether the fourth round of the $5 billion EPA program ($965 million) will ever be awarded is "currently not known" per the 10-K; the $80 million DOE grant sits in the new administration’s review, and the electric-bus subscription joint venture Clean Bus Solutions was buried after a $7.4 million impairment — against which stands a $42.8 million customer advance for a large electric-bus order (10-Q as of 03/28/2026).

Governance & concentration

After the Micro Bird buyout ($201.8 million, 70 percent in stock), the Girardin family combines four roles: 7.88 percent shareholder, board seat, biggest dealer (roughly a fifth of first-half fiscal 2026 revenue via Superbird) and landlord — disclosed and approved, but never neutral again; add a single plant complex and single-source powertrains from Cummins/Accelera (8-K/A of 05/04/2026, 10-K FY 2025).

Valuation & market technicals

17 scanner hits from momentum and quality, less than 1 percent below the all-time high, up 612 percent in four years — at a P/E around 19 (trailing) resp. 16 (current year) and a Piotroski of 7 of 9 (metrics data as of July 8, 2026); no bubble level, but the market is paying for the record margins to continue, and insiders recently sold fourteen times against one purchase.

Bottom Line

Blue Bird is a real turnaround with a real moat: record revenue, record profit, a 15 percent EBITDA margin, net cash and a dealer network that has held for decades. But the three biggest levers of the story from here do not sit in Blue Bird’s books: an EPA funding round with "no further communication" for over a year, a tariff calendar that knocked the backlog down 36 percent, and a selling family that is now major shareholder, board member, biggest dealer and landlord at once. Whoever buys just below the all-time high buys a very good company at a price that budgets little disappointment. Not investment advice.

Worth Noting:
  • BLBD landed on the research list via the momentum/stage-2 run of our in-house stock scanner (scanner run of July 17, 2026) — 17 hits, unusually drawn from momentum and quality filters at once; there was no Reddit hype.
  • Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, Piotroski, Altman-Z, performance) use trailing twelve-month figures as of the July 8, 2026 data cut-off; the one-time pension settlement loss (Q3 FY 2026, roughly $28.1 million, non-cash) and the Micro Bird consolidation from Q3 FY 2026 are not yet reflected in them.
  • Price and valuation figures dated July 8, 2026 (about $79, roughly $2.5 billion market value excluding exchangeable shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Blue Bird’s fiscal year ends in late September/early October — all quarterly references carry the fiscal-year offset.

About the Company

Blue Bird Corporation entwirft, konstruiert, fertigt und verkauft gemeinsam mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften Schulbusse in den USA, Kanada und international. Das Unternehmen ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Bus und Parts.

Employees2,008
HeadquartersMacon, GA
Websiteblue-bird.com
IPO Date20. Mar 2014
Next Earnings5. Aug 2026

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
John Wyskiel President, CEO & Director 1965
Razvan Radulescu Chief Financial Officer 1975
Ted M. Scartz J.D. Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary 1971
Jeff Sanfrey Chief Operating Officer 1973
Tim Gordon Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing
David M. Pasternak Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer
Eric Boule Senior Vice President of Micro Bird
Lyndon Lie Senior Vice President of Engineering
Craig West Vice President ? Corporate Controller & Treasurer

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

Data as of: July 20, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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