Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)
🔔 Watch stock
Astrana Health coordinates care for roughly 1.55 million patients in America on fixed per-member fees — and lights up 25 filters in our in-house stock scanner at once, from the Stan Weinstein stage-2 trend to the revenue growth screen (data as of July 17, 2026). We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: revenue that has quadrupled since 2021, profit that melted to $22.5 million along the way, a $674.9 million acquisition whose sellers filed for bankruptcy six days after closing — and four health plans that account for 60 percent of revenue. Not investment advice — just both ends of the same ledger: $3.2 billion at the top, $22.5 million at the bottom.
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 24 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIAstrana Health nutzt KI operativ in der eigenen Population-Health-Plattform, verkauft aber keine KI: Der Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 beschreibt den Einsatz von Machine-Learning-Algorithmen und prädiktiver Analytik in den eigenen Angeboten („to add AI-based applications to our offerings and to drive efficiencies“), die Umsätze stammen jedoch vollständig aus Kopfpauschalen (Capitation), Versorgungsleistungen und Management-Gebühren — nicht aus KI-Produkten. Im Quartalsbericht (10-Q) zum 31.03.2026 vermarktet sich der Konzern erstmals als „AI-powered“ (im 10-K acht Wochen zuvor noch „technology-powered“), inhaltlich bleibt es beim operativen Einsatz; die Cybersecurity-Governance (10-K, Item 1C) dokumentiert Board-Aufsicht über KI-gestützte klinische Workflows. Die Risk Factors behandeln KI nur als Regulierungs-, Design- und Cyber-Risiko des eigenen Einsatzes — kein konkretes Bedrohungsszenario fürs Geschäftsmodell, keine KI-Umsatzquelle: nach Kriterienkatalog „nutzt“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our business utilizes AI and machine learning technologies, to add AI-based applications to our offerings and to drive efficiencies in our business."
Unser Geschäft nutzt KI- und Machine-Learning-Technologien, um unsere Angebote um KI-basierte Anwendungen zu erweitern und Effizienzgewinne in unserem Geschäft zu erzielen.
„Our offerings utilize, and we plan to further examine, develop and introduce machine learning algorithms, predictive analytics, and other AI technologies to offer new applications, upgrade our solutions and enhance our capabilities, among other things, to identify trends, anomalies and correlations, provide alerts and initiate business processes."
Unsere Angebote nutzen Machine-Learning-Algorithmen, prädiktive Analytik und weitere KI-Technologien — und wir planen, diese weiter zu untersuchen, zu entwickeln und einzuführen —, um neue Anwendungen anzubieten, unsere Lösungen aufzuwerten und unsere Fähigkeiten zu erweitern, unter anderem um Trends, Anomalien und Korrelationen zu erkennen, Warnhinweise zu geben und Geschäftsprozesse anzustoßen.
„Astrana is a leading physician-centric, AI-powered, risk-bearing healthcare management company."
Astrana ist ein führendes arztzentriertes, KI-gestütztes, risikotragendes Gesundheitsmanagement-Unternehmen.
„The Board oversees the ethical deployment of automated intelligence and machine learning, ensuring algorithmic accountability and the mitigation of security risks inherent in AI-driven clinical workflows."
Der Verwaltungsrat überwacht den ethischen Einsatz von automatisierter Intelligenz und maschinellem Lernen und stellt algorithmische Rechenschaftspflicht sowie die Minderung der Sicherheitsrisiken sicher, die KI-gestützten klinischen Arbeitsabläufen innewohnen.
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.15 | -155.80 | 665 | 88.40 | -1.00 | -11 | -14 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.14 | -55.80 | 620 | 53.40 | 1.10 | 17 | 14 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.19 | -52.30 | 655 | 34.70 | 1.40 | 91 | 90 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.01 | -97.70 | 956 | 99.70 | 0.00 | 10 | 7 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.12 | – | 951 | 42.90 | 0.60 | -3 | -6 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.29 | 114.80 | 965 | 55.60 | 1.50 | 68 | 64 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Stan Weinstein stage-2 uptrend, about 0.5 percent below the 52-week high in a tight consolidation (Tight & Near High), relative strength 89, up 86 percent in three months, 25 scanner hits and institutional accumulation (11 funds adding versus 5 trimming) — technically one of the cleanest pictures of the momentum run (data as of July 17, 2026).
Revenue from $773.9 million (2021) to $3,181.8 million (2025), Q1 2026 up 56 percent, patient count from 1.0 to 1.55 million within twelve months; operating cash flow doubled to $114.6 million in 2025 and reached $68.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 — the growth generates real money (10-K 2025, 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Profit attributable to shareholders fell three years in a row — $60.7 million (2023), $43.1 million (2024), $22.5 million (2025) — while revenue quadrupled; net margin roughly 0.7 percent. Of the Q1 2026 growth, $300.2 of $344.7 million came from the Prospect acquisition; pro forma the gain was barely 4 percent, and the base effect expires from July 2026.
Roughly $1.03 billion of bank debt after the $707.3 million draw for Prospect, interest expense of $49.9 million (2025) against $78.5 million of operating income (coverage 1.85); goodwill plus intangibles ($1,126.0 million) exceed equity ($800.3 million, 03/31/2026). Counterweights: $478.4 million of cash and an Altman Z around 5.
Four health plans = 59.8 percent of 2025 revenue (largest payer 26.0 percent), roughly 87 percent of revenue from Medicare/Medicaid; capitation deficits are, per the annual report, "not capped," and the company is moving deeper into full risk through its Knox-Keene plans (10-K 2025, Item 1/1A).
A P/S around 0.6 meets a 0.7 percent margin; trailing P/E around 70, on adjusted analyst estimates (~$2.90 per share for 2026) a good 15 times — the gap between those two numbers is the actual bet; 12 analysts, average rating 1.3 (data as of July 17, 2026).
Astrana is the acid test of the top-line illusion: a genuine, cash-generative growth platform for value-based care with textbook technicals — and at the same time a company where less than a cent of every revenue dollar reaches shareholders, where four health plans provide 60 percent of revenue, whose latest growth spurt was bought for $674.9 million on credit, and whose sellers were bankrupt six days after closing. Whether 0.7 percent of margin becomes more again will be decided by cost management in the full-risk contracts and by the Prospect integration — not by the scanner. Not investment advice.
- ASTH reached the research list through the momentum/stage-2 run of our in-house stock scanner on July 17, 2026, with 25 hits — including Stan Weinstein stage 2, near 52-week high, Tight & Near High, high revenue growth, EPS & revenue power, William O'Neil (CAN SLIM) and pros 80%.
- Scanner metrics (P/S, Piotroski, Altman Z, interest coverage, fundamental grade) are computed on trailing twelve-month figures; the Prospect acquisition has only been part of them since July 1, 2025 — growth rates and margins of the coming quarters are therefore only comparable pro forma.
- Price and valuation figures dated July 17, 2026 (about $43.50, roughly $2.15 billion market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Next quarterly report per current data: August 6, 2026.
About the Company
Astrana Health, Inc., ein Gesundheitsmanagementunternehmen, bietet medizinische Versorgungsdienste in den USA an.
| Employees | 3,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Alhambra, CA |
| Website | astranahealth.com |
| IPO Date | 13. Jan 2000 |
| Next Earnings | 6. Aug 2026 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth T. Sim F.A.C.S., M.D. | Co-Founder & Executive Chairman | 1954 |
| Brandon K. Sim M.S. | President & CEO | 1994 |
| Thomas S. Lam M.D., M.P.H. | Co-Founder & Vice Chairman | 1949 |
| Chandan Basho M.B.A. | CFO, COO & Corporate Secretary | 1983 |
| Glenn W. Sobotka | Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer | 1978 |
| Rita Pew M.B.A. | Chief People Officer | – |
| WaiChow Young M.D., M.P.H. | Senior Vice President of Health Affairs | 1948 |
| Jeremy R. Jackson M.D. | Chief Quality Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 20, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.