Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)
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Affirm is the U.S. market leader for installment payments at checkout — "Buy Now, Pay Later." Volume grew 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, and 2025 brought the first GAAP profit in company history: $52 million. Sounds like a turning point. But operations still ran a loss, the company's own "Adjusted Operating Income" of $778 million adds back nearly half a billion dollars in stock-based compensation — and the actual business is lending money. We read the filings: credit quality, dilution, the Amazon concentration risk and valuation. Not investment advice — just the arithmetic behind a first profit that spent nearly half a billion dollars to happen.
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.23 | – | 866 | 46.60 | 9.30 | 312 | 268 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.01 | – | 783 | 35.90 | 0.40 | 210 | 157 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.20 | – | 876 | 33.00 | 7.90 | 75 | 24 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.23 | – | 933 | 33.60 | 8.60 | 375 | 320 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.37 | 59.30 | 1,123 | 29.60 | 11.50 | 174 | 118 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.30 | 3,528.90 | 1,039 | 32.60 | 9.90 | 387 | 325 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
A clear U.S. market leader for "Buy Now, Pay Later" with a strong platform (more than 23 million active consumers, about 377,000 merchants) and top partners including Amazon, Shopify and Walmart. At its core, though, a lender — interest income, at $1.61 billion, is the largest revenue block, not a software fee.
Sustained and documented: gross merchandise volume up 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, revenue up 39 percent to $3.22 billion in fiscal year 2025, continuing with volume up 35 percent in the third quarter of 2026. This is the stock's strongest side.
First GAAP net profit (+$52.2 million in 2025), but still an operating loss of $87.3 million and an accumulated deficit of about $3.1 billion. The company's own headline figure, "Adjusted Operating Income" ($778.1 million), strips out $499.9 million in stock-based compensation — about 15.5 percent of revenue, borne in reality as dilution.
As a lender, Affirm depends on the economic cycle and interest rates: provision for credit losses up 34 percent to $616.7 million, allowance for credit losses risen to 6.0 percent (31.03.2026), 30-day delinquency risen to about 2.8 percent. Under control so far; a 1-percentage-point rate jump is largely hedged, with under $65 million of cash-flow impact.
Concentration risk: Amazon about 22 percent, top-five partners about 47 percent of volume — the growth story hangs on a handful of relationships. On top of that, a dual-class structure: founder Max Levchin controls about 44.4 percent of all votes through shares carrying 15 votes each, management nearly 47 percent.
Price-to-sales ratio around 7, enterprise value about 8.5 times revenue (mid-2026, about $28 billion in market value). Normal for a software company, high for a business that's credit-driven at its core — the market is explicitly paying for the tech narrative, which still needs to be backed by durable GAAP profits.
Affirm is the U.S. market leader for installment payments at checkout and is growing impressively: gross merchandise volume up 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, revenue up 39 percent to $3.22 billion in fiscal year 2025. A GAAP net profit showed up in the filing for the first time (+$52.2 million), but operations still ran a loss of $87.3 million, and the company's own "Adjusted Operating Income" metric of $778.1 million adds back $499.9 million in stock-based compensation. The business is, at its core, interest- and default-dependent lending (provision for credit losses up 34 percent), a fifth of volume hangs on Amazon, and at a price-to-sales ratio around 7 the market is paying a growth premium. Strong growth meets a still-fragile, dilution-carried profitability. Not investment advice.
- Materiality gate (10.07.2026) — finding by finding: (1) Operating loss despite the first net profit (−$87.3 million operating, +$52.2 million net, accumulated deficit about $3.1 billion): an earnings-quality finding, not an existential finding, since $2.2 billion in cash and 39 percent revenue growth carry it → a pricing/structural finding. (2) Dilution from stock-based compensation ($499.9 million, about 15.5 percent of revenue, stripped out in "Adjusted Operating Income"): under the gate, a pricing finding that shifts the verdict at most one notch. (3) Credit risk/rate sensitivity (provision up 34 percent to $616.7 million, allowance for credit losses 6.0 percent, 30-day delinquency about 2.8 percent; a 1-percentage-point rate shock hedged below $65 million): currently under control → a pricing/cyclical finding; it would become an existential finding only in a funding or credit crisis (a jump in delinquency, the loss of warehouse facilities). (4) Partner concentration, Amazon at about 22 percent of volume (top five about 47 percent): per the gate's calibration (21 percent = a dent), a dent — the company would stay intact with more than 377,000 merchants → a concentration-risk dent. (5) Valuation (P/S around 7, enterprise value about 8.5× revenue) and dual-class control (Levchin about 44.4 percent of votes): a pricing/structural finding. Result: no existential finding, but a cluster of pricing/structural findings pointing the same direction against documented growth → not a "vorsicht" classification, but not a "buy" either; "beobachten," tied to sustained GAAP profitability without the adjusted crutch, the trajectory of delinquency, and the Amazon share.
- Data basis: annual report (10-K) for fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025; filed August 28, 2025) and quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026 (filed May 7, 2026); non-GAAP figures ("Adjusted Operating Income" $778.1 million, the delinquency series) from the shareholder letters (exhibits to Form 8-K) for the fourth quarter of FY2025 and the third quarter of FY2026. Revenue breakdown FY2025: interest income $1,608.2 million, merchant network revenue $882.7 million, gains on loan sales $381.6 million, card network $231.3 million, servicing income $120.6 million.
- Special-situation screening via the EDGAR submissions index (as of 10.07.2026): no activist Schedule 13D, only passive 13G filings from institutional holders (including Vanguard and BlackRock); no announced takeover, no strategic review. Governance: founder/CEO Max Levchin controls about 44.41 percent of all votes through Class B shares carrying 15 votes each (all directors and officers combined: 46.80 percent); reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada effective 01.07.2025.
- Price and valuation figures are dated mid-2026 (market value about $28 billion on about 294 million outstanding Class A shares plus about 41 million Class B shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Affirm Holdings, Inc. betreibt ein Zahlungsnetzwerk in den USA, Kanada und international.
| IPO Year | 2021 |
|---|---|
| Next Earnings | 27. Aug 2026 |
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Data as of: July 2, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.